Texas heating bills average $106 as El Niño could cool winter demand

Texas households are paying more to heat their homes, with a new study putting the state’s average monthly winter heating bill at $106.21, up 10.15% from 2024. Forecasters expect a strong El Niño to bring a cooler, wetter winter, a shift that could affect electricity demand and energy costs across the state.

Why it matters: - Texas families are facing higher winter energy costs while already absorbing rising food and gasoline expenses. - A strong El Niño could bring a cooler, wetter winter to Texas and lift heating demand. - Cooler weather can also affect electricity bills and energy shopping decisions heading into spring.

What happened: - TexasElectricityRatings.com released a new study on Texas winter heating costs and the 2026-27 El Niño outlook. - The study says Texas ranks 15th among states for the lowest winter heating costs. - Texas households average $106.21 per month for heating, or about $530 over a typical five-month season. - Electricity heats 51% of Texas homes, natural gas heats 42%, and propane heats 2%.

The details: - The study found electric heating costs in Texas average $70.70 per month. - Natural gas heating costs average $161.21 per month, the highest among the main fuel types in the state. - Newer, high-efficiency heating systems should cost less than the averages in the study. - Texas heating costs rose 10.15% from $96.42 per month in 2024 to $106.21 in 2026. - Natural gas drove most of that increase, rising 15.49% from $139.59 to $161.21 per month. - Electricity heating costs rose only 1.73%. - Nationally, heating costs increased since 2024: electricity up 9.93%, natural gas up 33.70%, propane up 9.42%, and fuel oil up 44.44%. - Texas ranks 11th for the smallest increase in heating costs among states. - Hawaii and Florida rank first and second for the lowest heating costs because few homes in those warm states use heaters. - Alaska, Maine, and Vermont have the highest weighted average heating costs. - New England has the highest monthly costs overall because of high fuel oil prices. - The full study is available here. - An interactive state-by-state heating cost map is available here.

Between the lines: - El Niño usually warms much of the country, but it often brings cooler, wetter winters to Texas. - January and February are typically the coldest months in Texas. - If El Niño disrupts the Polar Vortex in December, early cold snaps could hit the state sooner. - High gas storage and strong production have helped keep prices lower in recent months. - The EIA expects homes in the Midwest, South, and Northeast that heat with natural gas or propane to spend 10% to 15% less than last winter. - Homes on the West Coast may spend 7% more.

What's next: - Spring could bring lower electricity rates in Texas and other states if heating demand drops and seasonal consumption falls in northern states. - Any savings may be short-lived before hotter weather pushes southern states back into air-conditioning season. - Texas consumers are being urged to watch for falling electric rates this spring and compare providers for the best deals.