Texas study finds Thanksgiving’s first six hours had triple the fatal crash average

A new Texas Truck Accident Lawyer report found 4.8 fatal crashes on average between midnight and 5:59 a.m. on Thanksgiving Day from 2020 through 2024, compared with 1.6 during the same hours on nearby Thursdays. The full holiday period showed a lower average than comparison periods, underscoring that the overnight spike does not describe the entire Thanksgiving travel window.

Why it matters: - The finding suggests Thanksgiving’s earliest hours may be riskier than nearby Thursdays, even though the full holiday period did not show a higher fatal crash average. - Drivers considering an after-midnight departure to avoid traffic should not assume less congestion means a safer trip. - The report does not measure trips taken or miles driven, so it cannot identify the safest departure time.

What happened: - Texas Truck Accident Lawyer released a report based on five years of Texas crash records. - The report found an average of 4.8 fatal crashes between midnight and 5:59 a.m. on Thanksgiving Day from 2020 through 2024. - The same hours on nearby Thursdays averaged 1.6 fatal crashes. - The analysis used the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's Fatality Analysis Reporting System.

The details: - The study counted 24 fatal crashes across five Thanksgiving mornings and 32 across 20 comparison mornings. - For each year, the comparison used the same hours on the two Thursdays before Thanksgiving and the two Thursdays after it. - Dividing by the number of mornings produced the 4.8 and 1.6 averages. - The report examined all 17 six-hour blocks in the holiday period before identifying the early Thursday window as the largest difference. - The analysis covers fatal crashes only, not crashes involving injuries or property damage alone. - The 2020 through 2023 files are final, while the 2024 file may still be revised. - The full holiday period ran from Wednesday at 6 p.m. through Sunday at 11:59 p.m. - Across that full period, the average number of fatal crashes was 48.0 per Thanksgiving period versus 51.45 per comparison period. - Fatal crashes involving a large truck averaged 6.2 during Thanksgiving periods versus 7.9 during comparison periods. - The report does not show who caused any crash. - The report does not prove that tired drivers, alcohol or traffic volume caused the difference in the overnight results.

Between the lines: - The overnight pattern is a historical snapshot, not a prediction for this Thanksgiving. - The smaller holiday-wide average shows why one slice of the holiday should not be used to describe the entire trip. - The report says the early-hours difference could be due to chance because the number of crashes was small. - The data do not establish whether Thanksgiving travel is safer or more dangerous per mile. - The practical takeaway is to prioritize a rested, sober driver and plan for an overnight stop if needed.

What's next: - Travelers are being urged to check road conditions before both the outbound and return trips. - Drivers should plan a safe place to stop if fatigue becomes an issue. - The full report includes every time block, data files, charts, reproduction files and a plain-text version with a recommended citation, available on Texas Truck Accident Lawyer's website. - Texas Truck Accident Lawyer says the Thanksgiving report is available free on its website.

The bottom line: - The first six hours of Thanksgiving Day stood out in the historical Texas data, but the full holiday picture was less alarming and the study does not prove causation.